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Strategic Planning Document -
Environment and Natural Resources
Research Successes
Scientists Unravel the Mystery of the
Antarctic Ozone Hole
Based upon convincing scientific evidence
gathered in Antarctica and elsewhere,
international agreements are now in place to
eventually protect the stratospheric ozone
layer. The ozone layer is earth's shield against
solar UV radiation. With a reduction in the
effectiveness of this filter, more radiation
would reach the surface, causing increases in skin
cancer, a diminished human immune system
response, an increase in cataracts, and damage to
biota.
Over a decade of scientific research has
supported the original 1970s predictions, which
were that continued emissions of CFCs would
eventually cause global ozone depletions of
several percent by the middle of the next century.
Science also, however, discovered some surprises,
including observations of global ozone downward
trends that were even larger than predicted and
that losses as large as 60% were occurring in
Antarctica. Direct measurements of the chemical
species that control ozone allowed the link
between this dramatic ozone depletion in
Antarctica and emissions of CFCs and other
human-made species to be established
definitively. This overall sequence of research
results, which extended from theory to
observation to cause, was paralleled by
governmental policies for reductions in and
eventual phase-out of ozone-damaging
compounds and by vigorous industrial
development of safer substitutes.
Although recent atmospheric measurements
are confirming that emissions of the major ozone-
damaging compounds are now on the path to
being largely eliminated, science and policy
continue to address the key issues of managing
the peak ozone depletions expected near the end
of this decade, evaluating the success or failure of
the hoped-for recovery of the ozone layer in the several decades thereafter, and understanding
the emerging science/policy links between ozone
depletion and surface climate change.
Forecasting Reduces Agricultural Losses
Early forecasts of the dramatic shifts every
few years in the timing and intensity of
precipitation patterns associated with El Nino
have enabled farmers in several South American
countries to prevent crop losses of hundreds of
millions of dollars, keeping food available and
keeping prices from rising sharply. This improved
forecasting capability was developed over the
past ten years with research into the causes of El
Nino by the United States and other countries
through the International Tropical Ocean-Global
Atmosphere Program.
Adverse and fluctuating weather events on a
large scale cause billions of dollars in crop losses
and other economic impacts each year. Drought
in the Sahara, delayed monsoons in India, and
prolonged dry periods in food-growing and water
resource regions create food and water shortages
for large populations. Even in developed
countries such as the United States, events such
as the Great Plains droughts of 1988, the
Mississippi River floods of 1993, and the
California floods of 1995 cost millions of dollars
in damages and crop losses.
El Nino affects weather from Australia to
South and Central America, as well as into the
western and southern United States. Although
fluctuations in the weather cannot be prevented,
the ability to predict extreme changes months in
advance allows for agricultural yields to be
protected by changing crops and planting
schedules. Our improved forecasting ability is
sufficiently accurate to also be applied to water
resource planning in the southwestern United
States. Water supplies can be protected by
adjusting storage and management practices.
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