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Research Successes - Natural Disaster Reduction
Strategic Planning Document -
Environment and Natural Resources
Research Successes
Philippines Escape Volcanic Disaster
Tens of thousands of lives and hundreds
of millions of dollars worth of military
property were saved by timely evacuation
before the volcanic eruption of Mount
Pinatubo in the Philippines. The eruption in
June 1991 was the century's second largest
volcanic eruption. Lives and property were saved
by the quick response of Philippino scientists and
civil defense authorities, assisted by the U.S.
scientists and a U.S. Volcanic Crisis Assistance
Team. U.S. scientists provided vital upgrades in
radio-telemetered, computer-assisted monitoring
and critical experience that they have gained
through work on volcanic crises around the
world. Through long-term observation and study
of active volcanoes, together with detailed
investigations of the geology and geochemistry of
older, inactive volcanoes, U.S. scientists have
discovered several means of predicting volcanic
eruptions.
More than 65,000 people (including 14,500
American military personnel and dependents from
nearby Clark Air Base) were evacuated before the
climactic eruption. The death toll was about 150,
including one American citizen.
Since the massive eruptions at Mount
Pinatubo, volcanic mudflows (lahars) have
threatened about half a million people and have
left more than 60,000 homeless. U.S.-designed
technology is the basis for immediate warnings of
lahars, and the U.S. has continued to assist the
Philippine Institute of Volcanology and
Seismology in providing warnings to the national
and local governments. Experience from the
United States and other countries also has been
the principal basis for long-range forecasts of
lahars and downstream sediment problems. This
information is critical for political decisions about
social and engineering measures to cope with the
lahars and for engineering design of lahar-
controlling structures.
Timely Hurricane Warnings Save Lives, Property
Improved accuracy and lead time have
significantly decreased the number of
hurricane-related deaths, particularly since the
middle of this century. Such early warning is
now possible because of significant improvements
in the science and technology of weather
observation and analyses, together with vastly
improved communications technology. Hurricane
Andrew in 1992, for example, was tracked the
moment it came off the coast of Africa. Initially,
it was considered only a minor tropical storm,
even as late as Friday morning, August 21. As its
increasing strength was recognized, however, a
hurricane watch was issued for the south Florida
coast. A hurricane warning was issued at 8 a.m.
Sunday, and Andrew struck Dade County,
Florida, at 3:49 a.m. Monday. During the
warning, radio and television stations devoted air
time to tracking the storm, relaying official
bulletins, discussing its potential severity, and
providing guidance on preparation and
evacuation.
The majority of Dade County residents
reported they had sufficient warning to prepare
for the storm and that television had been their
principal source of information. Early warning
allowed almost 750,000 people to evacuate the
area. The impact of the hurricane was
catastrophic, estimated at $30 billion in property
damage. Remarkably, however, only 15 deaths
were directly attributed to Andrew, despite the
huge number of evacuees.